How US election pollsters have got it so wrong AGAIN as Trump defeats experts' predictions… just like in 2016
AS BATTLEGROUND states including Florida, Ohio and Texas were called for President Donald Trump and the election turned into a nail-biter, some considered pollsters the clear losers for predicting a landslide for the Democratic presidential nominee—again.
Tuesday night’s tight race was a déjà vu of sorts of how results shaped up in 2016, when the polls heavily favored then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton over political newcomer Trump.
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As the night went on, the election tipped away from Clinton and for Trump, in one of the most shocking results in recent history from a polling standpoint.
FiveThirtyEight's final forecast four years ago had Trump with a 29 percent chance of capturing the Electoral College, which was better odds than other leading models.
This time around, FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast gave Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while giving Trump only a 10 percent chance.
FiveThirtyEight noted that new sources of error that were not present four years ago included about 100 million early and mail-in ballots that “could present challenges to pollsters,” but that the final forecast was made with “what we think are fairly conservative assumptions.”
On election night, as Decision Desk HQ projected a Trump victory in Florida, FiveThirtyEight’s editor-in-chief Nate Silver shrunk Biden’s chances of winning from 89 percent—similar to what other outlets predicted—to 66 percent.
That boosted Trump’s chances to 33 percent.
Later, Silver tweeted that Trump was “in a better position” than when the polls first closed and that “Biden’s not going to win in a landslide.”
However, Silver defended the integrity of his polling.
“There's still not a ton we know outside of Florida, and the data we do have is fairly mixed and not necessarily suggestive of as large a polling error elsewhere,” he tweeted.
But others criticized the work of pollsters.
Conservative news personality Meghan McCain tweeted that Trump was “doing better than was predicted by the vast majority already” and that “the big loser tonight are the pollsters and most of the media who no one will ever believe anymore.”
FOX 11 correspondent Bill Melugin opined that regardless of how the rest of the results panned out, “we are witnessing the end of the political polling industry before our eyes” because they were “completely off, again.”
Key quotes from Trump’s address
DONALD Trump made an extraordinary address to the nation as he appeared to declare victory and suggest he will fight the election result in the Supreme Court.
- " Millions and millions of people voted for us tonight and a very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people, and we won’t stand for it."
- " We were winning everything, and all of a sudden it was just called off. "
- " The citizens of this country have come out in record numbers, this is a record, there’s never been anything like it, to support our incredible movement."
- " We won states that we weren’t expected to win. Florida—we didn’t win it, we won it by a lot."
- " They knew they couldn’t win so they said let’s go to court. And did I predict this, did I say this?"
- " We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election. So our goal now is to ensure the integrity, for the good of this nation."
- " We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop."
- "To me, this is a very sad moment. And we will win this. As far as I’m concerned, we already have won it ."
OutKick founder Clay Travis, who has described himself as a “radical moderate,” criticized pollsters and “left wing” media.
“I don’t know if the left wing media or the polling industry ever recovers from this. I really don’t,” Travis tweeted.
Meanwhile, Trump cast the incoming results as, “we are up BIG,” and in an address early Wednesday touted his performance in the battleground states.
“We won states that we weren’t expected to win—Florida—we didn’t win it, we won it by a lot,” the president said.
Trump spoke of his victories in Ohio and Texas, and said his team was set to celebrate a “phenomenal” night that was “so beautiful, so good.”
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